Who wins the primary races will be much less about “message” and voter persuasion than about a simple game of numbers – in particular the two T’s: turnout and targeting.

Elections are about many things – debates and the clash of ideas, TV ads and mailboxes overflowing with direct mail, and of course lots of passion, energy and excitement. But elections are most fundamentally about basic arithmetic, and which candidate can get more votes than anyone else. For that reason, the winning candidates this summer will be those who demonstrate a mastery of math in a few basic areas.

Voter turnout

New York’s two primaries dates this summer are certain to confuse people expecting a single date, and that fact will depress turnout. Furthermore, count on a good number of voters who take a summer vacation in late August to overlook the need to request an absentee ballot. And turnout in Democratic primaries will also be softer than usual due to an enthusiasm gap versus the GOP. About 60% of voters who have cast a primary ballot in a state that has held a primary election so far in 2022 are Republicans. If Democrats are not turning out and voting in primaries, then that’s a sign many will likely stay home in November – a very worrying trend for Democrats.

That’s why in today’s political environment, the winning primary candidates will be the ones who figure out which voters will turn out and then build and mobilize a coalition of voters to win.  But that task is becoming far harder to do in an age of “surge” and “drop off” voters.

According to data from Engage Voters, 285,378 Democratic primary voters in the June 2021 mayoral race were what I would call “unexpected voters,” as they had not previously voted in recent Democratic primaries. Conversely, 163,979 Democratic primary voters who were “expected” to turn out a year ago because they had voted in at least two of the recent Democratic primaries didn’t vote.

This data paints a pretty clear and unmistakable conclusion: traditional ways that campaigns target likely voters – “let’s mail all Democrats who voted in the prior two primaries” – is no longer an accurate way to forecast who are the most likely voters. Instead, campaigns are developing sophisticated statistical models to pinpoint the most likely voters and their supporters.

Absentee ballots

Because primary turnout will be modest, count on absentee ballots to play a key role this summer in many primary races across the state. Eric Adams became New York City mayor because he beat Kathryn Garcia by 7,197 votes in ranked-choice voting last year. In that election, 125,000 voters in the Democratic primary voted absentee – far more than Adams’ modest margin of victory. In a low turnout election, on Tuesday and in August, a strong absentee ballot program will almost certainly prove to be decisive in multiple close races.

Voter targeting 

While we don’t know how each voter casts their ballot in an election, we can examine the smallest political geography that the Board of Elections releases: election districts. Across New York City, there are about 3,000 election districts. What we found with our analysis is that certain election districts vote the same way ideologically election after election – no matter the year, the office or the political environment. Some of this appears to be at first glance pretty obvious when we examine election returns by Assembly district.

When we do that analysis, we see that places like Central Harlem, Central Brooklyn and Southeast Queens generally voted for middle-of-the-road Democrats and they will vote that way again this summer, while much of the Upper West Side, Park Slope and Western Queens supports more progressive candidates, and will do so again this summer.

However, the story is not nearly as simple as it appears. A significant number of election districts in so-called progressive parts of the city like the Upper West Side, Park Slope and Western Queens actually voted in high numbers for moderate Democrats. And they did it again and again, election after election, in large numbers to support candidates like Joe Biden, Andrew Cuomo, Eric Adams and Donovan Richards. And likewise, political progressives performed well in many “moderate” election districts. Almost without exception, no borough, no community and no neighborhood is politically monolithic. Therefore, only by examining past election return data closely over a series of different elections at the election district level does the richness of the election return data become apparent.

Why does this matter? It matters because most candidates don’t have enough money to reach all voters with a sufficient number of repetitions necessary to have their message break through and be heard. Therefore, targeting ideologically aligned voter segments, based on prior election history, are going to be the most reliable votes to win. Voter targeting is basic math and the smartest use of a campaign’s finite resources.

So New York politicians – get out your calculators and spreadsheets – your math skills are going to determine your political success this summer.

Bradley Honan and Elisabeth Zeche are partners at the Democratic polling and data analytics firm Honan Strategy Group.

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Growing concerns about rising crime and the prospect of being a victim of violent crime, as well as an increase in the cost of living, are reflected in the recently released public opinion poll of New York City residents by Siena College. The Siena survey, conducted in English and Spanish among 1,000 New York City residents, paints at best a very sour portrait of the mindset of New Yorkers today – indeed suggesting New Yorkers are really on edge. 

Not surprisingly, this fear and anxiety is creating a very negative political atmosphere, dragging down opinions of top elected officials, including New York City Mayor Eric Adams and New York State Governor Kathy Hochul.

And with an impending primary election scheduled for later this month for governor and state Assembly, and another primary election scheduled for late August for Congress and state Senate, it remains to be seen how these high levels of unease will play out at the ballot box.  Indeed, significant unhappiness on the part of the public frequently means that incumbent elected officials and those presenting the status quo will be fighting a very uphill battle to get elected and re-elected.  

Here are several of the key themes that emerged from our reading of the Siena poll.

New York City/New York State: On the wrong track

With growing concerns about crime, inflation, and the rising cost of living from gas to groceries, to concerns about the possibility of a slowing economy, it’s not surprising that a significant number of residents see New York City and New York State going in the wrong direction. Only between one third and four in ten see either the city or the state heading in the right direction – a pretty dismal rating. 

Indeed:

• While just 32% of city residents say that New York City is headed in the right direction, 56% say it’s headed in the wrong direction, which is the majority opinion in all 5 boroughs.
• The state numbers are slightly more positive with 38% saying the state is headed in the right direction, but 46%, nearly half the city, feeling that New York State is headed in the wrong direction.

As we have written about previously, these types of “unrest”/“wrong track” numbers likely suggest a political upheaval in the making, where incumbents are punished for not delivering a better climate for residents.

Fear of violent crime

With the recent mass shootings in Buffalo and Uvalde, combined with the recent shootings in the mass transit system, as well as the continued news coverage of crime, it’s not surprising that New Yorkers are feeling very vulnerable.  The numbers however appear to be staggeringly negative.

69% of New Yorkers are concerned that a shooting targeting people by race, religion, or ethnicity will take place in their own neighborhood. And that fear is well placed. According to the NYPD, hate crimes in New York City are up 76% this year.  And a report by the Anti-Defamation League found that hate crimes in New York rose a staggering 196% from 2020 to 2021, with Jews being the target of 40% of those hate attacks.   

As residents think about crime and safety, in the city and across their neighborhoods, 70% feel less safe since before the pandemic. It is therefore not surprising that 52% believe that funding for the NYPD should be increased, something 51% of Black residents agree with. Amazingly 51% of city residents report changing a part of their daily routine in order to feel safer.

Leading elected officials: The recipients of poor ratings

The sour and uneasy mood casts a very dark cloud around perceptions of elected officials, including Eric Adams and Kathy Hochul. Just 28% rate the job performance of Adams as excellent or good, while 65% rate the job he is doing as only fair or poor – a stunningly negative rating for a relatively new elected official. Adams is slightly better perceived among Democrats, but still only 31% of Democrats rate his job performance as excellent or good. Adams’ negative ratings are most pronounced in Staten Island (73%) and Manhattan (67%). The Latino segment of the population, many of whom helped power Adams to victory in the Democratic primary last June, polled especially on the negative side, with 55% rating Adams’ job rating as poor.

Don Levy, the Siena poll director noted that Adam’s positive ratings do not exceed 33% among any segment of New York City residents by party, gender, ideology, or borough.

In terms of Adams’ job performance on a range of specific issues tested, his performance is not net positive on any specific issue area tested. Adams receives net negative ratings on the following specific areas of his job performance; addressing homelessness, running the public school system, fighting crime, encouraging tourists to visit NYC, managing everyday city services, transforming the NYPD into a force that serves and protects all, and tackling the issue of safety at Rikers Island – all net negative ratings.

That said, in terms of Adams’ style, residents are narrowly positive. The polling found 53% approve of Adams style, while 37% disapprove. And compared with his predecessor, Bill de Blasio, Adams is seen as doing a better job by roughly a 2:1 margin. Some 36% say that Adams is doing a better job than de Blasio did, 17% say that de Blasio did a better job than Adams, and about one third, 36% say that Adams is doing about as well as de Blasio.

In terms of the governor, 35% rate the job that Kathy Hochul is doing as only excellent or good, while 54% rate her job performance as only fair or poor. Her ratings are even lower among Democrats – 31% rate her job performance as positive, while nearly 2 in 3 (65%) rate it negatively.

That said, while other public polling demonstrates Hochul is in a commanding lead for the Democratic primary, there doesn’t appear to be any public polling that shows Hochul getting even 50% of the primary vote, despite the weakness of her opponents. This serves as a warning shot to the governor about the challenges she will face in the November general election.

Far from being an outlier, many of the important trends that the Siena College poll highlights very much mirror what national polls are showing. As an example, a recent poll by the Wall Street Journal demonstrates the unease that Americans nationally are feeling about the economy and our political divisions – further suggesting an increasingly challenging political climate for Democrats this fall.

Bradley Honan and Elisabeth Zeche are partners at the Democratic polling and data analytics firm, Honan Strategy Group. 

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New York’s Republican gubernatorial candidates leveraged Tuesday’s recall of progressive San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin to boost their own criminal justice strategies – and denounce those of Democrats. While it’s unclear whether Boudin’s recall is a harbinger for progressives in New York, according to experts, it is indicative of shifting attitudes on criminal justice policies at a time when New Yorkers’ concerns about elevated crime is expected to weigh heavily on voters during the upcoming midterm elections.

Amid one of the most competitive GOP gubernatorial primary competitions in New York in the better part of a decade, the candidates were quick to hone in on voters’ rebuke of Boudin, with several calling for the removal of Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg. “Yesterday, Californians made their voice heard, and, in November, New Yorkers will too when they remove Kathy Hochul for, among many reasons, her refusal to fire pro-criminal Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg. New Yorkers are sick and tired of criminals ruling our streets, and they’re ready to end the attacks on our safety, repeal cashless bail, take back our streets and Save Our State,” GOP nominee Rep. Lee Zeldin said. 

Andrew Giuliani released a statement that said: “It turns out rampant shoplifting, drug dealing and car thefts are unacceptable for the people of San Francisco, who voted to recall their activist DA, Chesa Boudin. Americans are begging to be safe on their streets again. As governor, I’ll recall any district attorney who chooses to serve the criminals instead of the people — and I’ll start with Manhattan’s Alvin Bragg.” 

And Rob Astorino tweeted: “We need recall in New York . . . But at least we can recall (Gov. Kathy Hochul) this year and as governor I will recall and remove any woke DA who refuses to prosecute crime.” 

When asked about Boudin’s recall, Harry Wilson, who donated to Bragg’s 2021 campaign, said in a statement: “Woke District Attorneys across the country are making their constituents less safe. Fortunately, in New York, the Governor has the authority to remove rogue District Attorneys, which is exactly what I will do as Governor. New Yorkers need an outsider, not a politician, to make the tough choices to keep us safe.” In an op-ed in The New York Post in April, Wilson wrote that he would fire Bragg.

While votes have yet to be finalized in the San Francisco election, 60% of voters were in favor of Boudin’s recall as of Wednesday. Boudin, elected in 2019, ran on a platform to balance wealth discrepancies in the criminal justice system and lower the jail population. He also promised to end the use of cash bail, stop prosecuting minors as adults and prioritize diversion and mental health programs over jail sentences. He was the first San Francisco district attorney to charge police officers with homicide, and he never sought a death penalty during his tenure. Bragg has preached many of the same philosophies and promised similar policies

In both New York and San Francisco, some crime categories have risen sharply over the past two years, including vehicle thefts and homicides. Both cities have struggled to curb homelessness. In a poll conducted by the Bay Area Council in March, 65% of voters polled said they avoided downtown areas because of concerns about crime. Recent New York City polls reflect a similar trend. In a Spectrum News/Siena College poll released Tuesday, 70% of respondents said they feel less safe in the city than they did before the pandemic.

Bragg faced constant criticism from conservatives early in his tenure following the release of a memo that laid out his policies for limiting sentences for some crimes and reducing charges in certain circumstances. Even some in his own party distanced themselves from him, and Hochul warned that she was watching him “very closely.” Unlike in San Francisco, a recall election against Bragg would first require the state Legislature to approve a constitutional amendment, which voters would then have to sign off on. Hochul, however, has the power to remove him under the public officers law.

But Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg said the Republican attacks in the wake of Boudin’s recall are less about targeting Democrats than they are intended to draw Republican voters to the primary polls, where turnout is historically low. 

“They’re targeting their message at Republican base voters. They’re not targeting their message at Democrats . . . They’re trying to get through a primary in three weeks,” Greenberg told City & State. “There are 2.6 million Republicans in the state of New York. What percent of them are going to come out and vote on the last Tuesday in June, the Tuesday before July Fourth weekend?” 

Boudin’s recall is seen, in part, as a sign of San Franciscans overall dissatisfaction with rising crime and quality of life concerns, rather than of Boudin himself. “People have really had it with things not changing around safety in the streets,” Deb Walker, a member of the San Francisco Police Commission who did not support the recall, told The Los Angeles Times. “I don’t know that it’s anti-progressive, per se. I think it’s anti-extremist on the left. Just as there are extremes on the right, there are extremes on the left, and in general, they aren’t working very well.”Democrats from the city to federal levels have taken note of the shifting attitudes on criminal justice displayed Tuesday by voters in one of America’s most liberal cities. 

“The Siena poll makes clear that the crime epidemic is literally changing how New Yorkers are leading their lives,” Bradley Honan, CEO & President of the Democratic polling firm Honan Strategy Group told City & State in an email. “If Democratic elected officials don’t see Boudin’s recall as a big wake up call, they are in for a very rude awakening on Election Day.”

Biden on Wednesday said “voters sent a clear message last night. Both parties have to step up and do something about crime as well as gun violence.” Days earlier, New York City Mayor Eric Adams said the city’s criminal justice system has become a “laughing stock of our entire country.” Hochul’s campaign declined to comment on Boudin’s recall, but released an ad today promoting the package of anti-gun violence laws she signed last week. 

A spokesperson for the governor, in a statement responding to questions about Boudin’s recall and Hochul’s stance on Bragg’s job performance, said “Governor Hochul has taken strong action to crack down on the spread of illegal guns, prevent gun violence, and protect communities across the state, and she will continue working with the legislature, law enforcement, and local leaders to combat crime and keep New Yorkers safe,” Hazel Crampton-Hays told City & State in an email.

Notably, Bragg was among the district attorneys in attendance when the governor signed the gun-reform laws last week. 

“Hochul is in a serious pickle when it comes to Bragg – while she knows he is becoming a political pariah, her support among African Americans is tenuous and there is growing fear among Democrats that many base Democrats may well sit out the November elections,” Honan said.

The post City & State: GOP gubernatorial candidates use Boudin’s recall to rebuke DA Bragg, Hochul appeared first on Honan Strategy Group.

WASHINGTON (TND) — The White House is conducting another all-out blitz to reach the American people to tout the Biden administration’s accomplishments and rally support heading into the November midterms.

Administration officials and Cabinet members have conducted interviews, appeared on Sunday news shows and traveled across the country but the effort has lacked one piece: lengthy exchanges between President Joe Biden and reporters.

The president has traveled and made prepared remarks throughout his presidency but long interactions with the press have been few and far between. Biden’s last on-the-record interview with the media was on Feb. 10 ahead of Super Bowl LVI with NBC’s Lester Holt.

Biden has held off-the-record meetings and frequently answers questions after prepared remarks or while going to and from Air Force One but has walked away after a few brief responses with limited ability for follow-up questions or detailed exchanges.

The president has recently taken to writing op-eds in major newspapers like the Wall Street Journal, New York Times and Washington Post to reach voters.

“Biden’s recent op-ed’s in The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times suggests that the White House is readying a new chapter in their messaging war – something needed and long overdue,” said Bradley Honan, a Democratic pollster and strategist.

Biden’s White House has kept a similar strategy since he took office when it comes to limiting his time around the press. While Biden has done fewer interviews and news conferences than his recent predecessors, the White House has reinstituted daily briefings and frequently made staff or Cabinet members available for interviews.

Aides have also made a habit of immediately following up something Biden said off-script, like that Russian President Vladimir Putin cannot remain in power during a trip to Poland, to say the president meant something else.

That habit is frustrating the president. NBC reported this week that he was furious his words are being seen as unreliable.

Biden is right to be frustrated that [h]is team is at best playing minor league ball, and at worse undermining what the Commander in Chief is saying,” Honan said.

Finding a balance between having the president to speak directly to the people and protecting him from his trademark ad-libs has been difficult for the White House.

“In concept, it makes a lot of sense. You want the president to talk directly to the American people. You want the president to talk with the press, to answer questions, to go in-depth and to try to frame things how they want. That’s ideally what they should do,” said Tobe Berkovitz, associate professor of advertising emeritus at Boston University.

Issues arise when Biden’s message doesn’t come across the way he had hoped.

Multiple reports have outlined the White House’s and congressional Democrats’ frustrations with unsuccessfully touting accomplishments like the bipartisan infrastructure deal and the coronavirus relief package passed shortly after Biden took office.

The White House is also trying to convince Americans the economy is in strong shape even as some economists warn of a recession. Historic wage gains and near record-low unemployment have not convinced people who are dealing with more expensive groceries and gas, or parents searching for formula to feed their baby.

“While the political environment is bad for Democrats, the White House messaging mess is compounding the problem and creating a much deeper hole for Democrats to dig out of,” Honan said. “The White House lacks any sense of so called ‘message discipline’ or even a basic messaging framework and virtually every public opinion poll confirm this.

“The sooner that Biden relaces his messaging team, the better it will be for Democrats running tough races this fall across the country. Waiting to do this until after Election Day will guarantee a GOP takeover of Congress.”

Some strategists see it as a missed opportunity for Biden to lean on one of his political strengths, being seen as a genuine person.

“Voters from both parties see President Biden as a kind, empathetic, compassionate, and caring man, especially in the wake of the Buffalo and Uvalde shootings,” Honan said. “But the White House continues to miss opportunities to ‘let Biden be Biden’. Keeping him packaged up and away from the press and repeatedly retracting his public statements is a terrible strategy.”

Putting together a strong messaging strategy likely will not be enough to sway voters who see high gas prices or struggle to find formula, but it could start to restore faith in Biden as a leader and Democrats as the party to get the country back on track after the pandemic.

“There’s a host of problems that are all sort of compounding one another and by sort of hiding the president, it makes it look like the president is trying to avoid dealing with them,” Berkovitz said. “No, you don’t deal with them by doing press conferences, but the perception that is that he is not a hands-on president is very troubling to a lot of people and so at least putting him out there to speak, will perhaps start shifting people’s ideas that he is the commander-in-chief, he is in control.”

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Former New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio has re-emerged as a possible candidate – again – but this time, politicos making very early observations think he actually might have a chance at pulling off a successful campaign. De Blasio on Wednesday announced he has launched an exploratory committee to run in the newly redrawn Congressional District 10, and within hours, lapped up a major endorsement.

“Bill de Blasio is the most qualified progressive candidate who I believe can win this diverse seat,” Assembly Member Rodneyse Bichotte Hermelyn, chair of the Kings County Democratic Executive Committee, said in a statement.

There are a number of what-ifs at play. The newly redrawn congressional map won’t be finalized until Friday, but already, the District 10 field is becoming crowded with prospects to fill the open seat. Former lawyer to House Democrats, Daniel Goldman, is among the latest to weigh a run, sources told City & State on Wednesday. Former New York City Comptroller Scott Stringer, former Council Member David Yassky, Council Member Carlina Rivera, state Sens. Brad Hoylman and Simcha Felder, and Assembly Members Yuh-Line Niou, Robert Carroll and Jo Anne Simon have all expressed interest. Moderate entrepreneur Brian Robinson has also said he plans to run. 

If de Blasio does pull the trigger on NY-10, it would be the seventh political office he’s considered running, or actually run for in the past decade. In February, weeks after he finally put speculation to rest that he might run for governor, he reportedly considered challenging Max Rose in a Democratic primary for the 11th Congressional District. He ran for president in 2020, and before he was elected mayor, served as New York City Public Advocate and on the City Council.

His gubernatorial hopes and presidential campaign were widely mocked, but opinions appear to have swung in his favor, for now.

“Yes he can win. It’s a smart move for him professionally,” said veteran political consultant Hank Sheinkopf, a frequent de Blasio critic. “As the district is cut, in lower Manhattan, we have enough woke people who would vote for him, and he has brownstone Brooklyn, which has always been his base. Frankly, it depends on who else runs.”

“Stranger things have happened this year, and he might have a shot,” Olivia Lapeyrolerie, former first deputy press secretary to de Blasio and vice president at the political consulting firm SKDK, told City & State in a text message. “It may be the perfect storm for him . . . honestly this whole process has been so fucked up it’s anyone’s game, and he has the name recognition.”

Two of de Blasio’s former press secretaries had little to say about the Wednesday announcement. “I’ll stay out of this one,” Eric Phillips said in a text message to City & State. And Bill Neidhardt, who recently founded the progressive consulting firm Left Flank Strategies, said “I don’t have anything to say here, not familiar with the plans.”

De Blasio’s record on crime, however, could weaken his chances among voters in the new district, which in addition to parts of lower Manhattan and his home neighborhood of Park Slope, as of now includes portions of Borough Park, DUMBO, Brooklyn Heights, Windsor Terrace and Prospect Heights.

“Our polling indicates that voters feel the City is not in a good place today – crime is out of control, affordable housing is in short supply, there is a rise in anti Semitism, and the NY comeback is happening too slowly. Many primary voters pin the blame squarely on de Blasio’s shoulders,” Bradley Honan, CEO and president of the polling firm Honan Strategy Group, told City & State. “Name recognition only gets you so far in the current environment.”

That’s especially true in the Othodox Jewish community of Borough Park, where de Blasio is “one of the most hated politicians” among average voters, according to one local political insider who asked for anonymity to speak candidly. They said that while de Blasio has a strong relationship with leadership, many voters in the community blame him for an increase in crime, in addition to economic hardships brought on by the COVID-19 lockdowns he implemented. “Community leaders, even if they have gratitude for de Blasio will not be able to endorse him knowing the backlash they will get from voters in the community,” the insider said, noting that of the potential candidates publicly named thus far, the community would most likely support Yassky, depending on his ability to compete in the final field. 

Mercury political consultant Jake Dilemani, also expressed some optimism about de Blasio’s potential candidacy, but said his record on crime could hamstring him. 

“The district as drawn likely favors a progressive Democrat. Bill de Blasio, historically his politics would have aligned well with his district. It’s where his political base was as council member,” Dilemani said, while also highlighting de Blasio’s abysmal polling record during the tail end of his tenure. “Crime is consistently the number one concern amongst democratic primary voters right now, and a lot of those voters lay the blame at the feet of the former mayor.”

The post Early observers say Bill de Blasio might actually have a shot at Congress appeared first on Honan Strategy Group.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ head-scratching public vendetta against Disney over its opposition to Florida’s Parental Rights in Education law, dubbed by critics the “Don’t Say Gay” law, sends a clear message to boardrooms across the country: Stay the heck out of politics. 

The law bans the discussion of LGBTQ topics in classrooms from kindergarten to third grade. When the bill was first introduced, Disney employees and customers called on the company’s CEO to publicly denounce it. After initially refusing to do so and suffering backlash, he made an announcement criticizing the legislation. DeSantis responded by signing a bill that revoked the company’s special self-governing district status, which had been in place since 1967. 

But the DeSantis versus Disney imbroglio is a mere preview of a much larger collision underfoot within the GOP between the MAGA-inspired cultural warriors who now control the party and the traditional low tax and deregulation conservatives. It’s a clash that is finally breaking the decades-long alliance between Big Business and the GOP.

Thankfully, CEOs are finally waking up and realizing that the Republican Party is not their friend anymore. The cultural zealots that have hijacked much of the GOP are pushing America to the precipice of the biggest political realignment in nearly 100 years. It’s one where corporate America’s strategic interests — keeping their paying customers and workforce happy — will begin to align more closely with Democrats than Republicans, marking a seismic shift in the political landscape. 

In the months and years ahead, we expect to see an increasing number of large corporations join Disney in playing more activist roles in supporting progressive policies and decrying the erosion of rights and liberties, thereby naturally aligning themselves with Democrats. 

Some of America’s most powerful companies — Tesla, Amazon, Apple and Microsoft, to name just a few — are already providing additional benefits to employees who live in states where they would need to travel for abortions and other types of health care that local Republican lawmakers have targeted. And the likely reversal of Roe v. Wade later this summer will only serve as a jolt of adrenaline, accelerating the exodus of business interests from the grips of the GOP.

Like any decades-long marriage that ends in divorce, this split will be tough for Big Business to swallow. After all, it’s a relationship that has paid off handsomely over the years. Corporate CEOs routinely provided financial support to GOP war chests, and, in return, they were bestowed with a bounty of business-friendly policies such as low corporate taxes and deregulation. Case in point: Corporate taxes as a share of U.S. gross domestic product are only about 1 percent, the lowest in over 70 years.

As tough as it might be to break off ties with the GOP, for the CEOs of America’s largest corporations, remaining on the sidelines is no longer a tenable option — not at a time when one of America’s major political parties is hell-bent on clawing back a host of hard-fought rights from women, LGBTQ people and other marginalized communities while promulgating ludicrous conspiracy theories that led to, among other things, the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. 

Regardless of their personal politics, America’s business leaders cannot ignore the writing on the wall: Millennials and Gen Zers — the two generational cohorts that represent the next 50 years of America’s workforce as well as the lion’s share of its consumer base — are decidedly more progressive, diverse and inclusive in their social and political outlook than past generations. 

To quote a 2020 Pew Research Center study “similar to Millennials, Gen Zers are progressive and pro-government, most see the country’s growing racial and ethnic diversity as a good thing.” The GOP’s many attempts (and at times successes) at eroding the rights of marginalized communities are not supported by most people nationally. Whatever their historic allegiance to the party of Reagan, corporations that are blind to these shifting sentiments may end up being canceled and suffering irrevocable reputational harm. 

Moreover, given how vocal customers and activist employees have been holding business leaders’ feet to the fire in the ongoing cultural wars, CEOs have nowhere else to turn than to the Democratic Party.

However, as Big Business begins to distance itself from an increasingly unpopular GOP, its leadership shouldn’t expect Democrats to welcome these corporate castoffs with open arms. 

The progressive wing of the Democratic Party has traditionally disliked Big Business (even treating it as a punching bag). It will take time for Democratic leadership to rethink its strategic relationship with corporations, where distrust over profit-taking, CEO pay and America’s growing gulf between the haves and have-nots runs deep. 

Yet, over time, many Democrats — even those with a natural suspicion of corporate interests — may come to see CEOs and the companies they helm as valuable counterweights against a Supreme Court loaded with conservative justices and a Senate whose composition will always favor red states. Whether it’s channeling its massive funding to support more Democratic candidates, leveraging its robust media and communication channels to sway popular opinion, or intensifying its lobbying efforts in Congress, Big Business has a lot to offer the Democratic Party.

It’s worth noting that this would not be the first major realignment of its kind between Republicans and Democrats. In the mid-19th century, the roles of the two parties were essentially reversed from what they are today, with Democrats finding their base of support in the slave-owning South while the Republican Party, which dominated the northern states, orchestrated an ambitious expansion of federal power. It was the Republican Party — the party of Lincoln — that even passed laws that granted protections for Black Americans and advanced social justice issues in landmark legislation such as the Civil Rights Act of 1866. But by the New Deal era of the 1930s, the two parties essentially flipped positions, solidifying the alignment that we have had since.

We often refer to the media as “The Fourth Estate.” As Big Business continues to weigh in on cultural and political issues — especially as the country’s democracy endures its greatest test since the 1860s — it’s perhaps appropriate to begin describing it as the “Fifth Estate,” an integral and essential component of our political system. Corporations are already formidable vectors on some of the biggest and most vexing social issues of the day, and their influence will only grow. 

Whether its leaders realize it or not, Big Business is already drifting away from the GOP. Navigating this transition, however, will be no easy task. What corporate boards across the country should be asking themselves is this: Do we have the right leadership in place to deftly manage this historic transition? Companies will need CEOs who are up to the test.

The post NBC Think Op Ed: GOP’s culture wars force its decades-long marriage to Big Business to end in divorce appeared first on Honan Strategy Group.

An unpopular president who ran as a centrist, but veered too far to the left politically. A sense that Democrats, too, have gone too far left and lost their way. Growing concerns about the state of the economy, worries about immigration, and an uptick in crime. And waiting to pounce is an animated Republican Party moving further to the right looking to capitalize on the missteps of Democrats.

While that all rings true today, it was also true in the fall of 1994, the last time that an incumbent New York state Democratic governor was last defeated at the polls.  Nationally that year, the GOP also swept control of the House and Senate – giving them control of the House for the first time since 1954, something that looks increasingly possible again this fall.

 History does indeed repeat itself and the political winds are blowing in the same direction today. Even in deep blue parts of the state, the most recent wave of opinion research polls are showing a bad – and worsening – political climate for Democrats. 

 The new Quinnipiac University poll shows the issue of crime as the leading issue facing New York City voters, an issue that is easily (and repeatedly) weaponized against the Democrats by Republicans.

Polling data suggests that a number of Democratic seats will be lost to the GOP in traditional swing areas like Long Island, Westchester and Rockland, and in the Hudson Valley, but also perhaps in New York City itself, following the GOP’s surprisingly strong showing of support in the November 2021 mayoral elections, especially if the lines get drawn in a nonpartisan manner. And the statewide races this fall will certainly not be a walk in the park for Democrats, either. 

The most recent Siena College poll identified some worrying trends for Kathy Hochul and the Democrats – something we originally wrote about last fall. Consider some of the following points:

While 40% of general election voters would vote to reelect Kathy Hochul, 45% would prefer someone else. And while 62% of Democrats say they would vote to reelect Hochul, that is down from 72% in the Siena poll from a month ago. Latinos – the emerging swing voter group in American politics – and in New York – are equally divided, too. Sienna found 41% would vote to re-elect Hochul, while 42% would prefer someone else. And only 46% of Black voters, who Hochul needs to win by more than 90% on Election Day, are in her camp today – problems which have been documented by the New York Times.

The Siena poll is not an outlier. Indeed, a statewide poll conducted in March showed Hochul with just a 4 point lead over Lee Zeldin in the race for Governor. And the new Emerson College/Hill poll shows that if Andrew Cuomo were to enter the race for governor as an Independent, Democrats are in a dead heat against the GOP – 33% to 33%.

But beyond the concerning ballot numbers, there are underlying problems that confront Hochul and the Democrats, too.

According to the Siena Poll, 57% disapprove of the job Hochul is doing in office, while only 36% approve. And it’s easy to see why. Sienna found 69% disapprove of the job Hochul is doing on crime and 63% disapprove of the job she is doing on economic issues – the two top leading issues in the minds of voters – and issues voters will cast their ballots on this fall. And these are not just the feelings of GOP partisans who don’t like any Democrats. They exist within Hochul’s Democratic base. 

Siena found 58% of Democrats disapprove of the job she is doing on crime and 48% of Democrats disapprove of the job she is doing on economic issues. These numbers are not a surprise given that crime continues to be a leading story in the news and voters are confronting inflation and high gas prices every day in their lives.

More broadly, 52% say that the state is going in the wrong direction, and 57% say the same of the country – news that should worry every Democratic incumbent running for re-election.

It’s certainly not fair to put all the blame at the feet of Kathy Hochul. President Joe Biden is creating significant headwinds for Democrats across the country and even here in New York state. Just 51% of Democrats have a favorable opinion of Biden, according to Siena. If the president is barely positive in a Blue State, it’s not hard to imagine why Democrats are in real trouble in swing, purple states across the country and why Democrats are likely to lose control of Congress.

So, what is Hochul and the Democrats to do?

1. The Tom Suozzi message of getting tough on crime, cutting the everyday costs for middle class families, and generally driving a message of change appears to be gaining traction with voters, even as he struggles to gain votes. Hochul will need to adopt much of the Suozzi message for the summer and fall, assuming she wins the primary. Naming Suozzi as her lieutenant governor running mate would have been a shrewd move.
2. Hochul’s Buffalo Bill’s stadium subsidy has turned the Democrats – traditionally the party of the working class – into the party favoring redistributing taxpayer money to a Florida-based billionaire – and polls show how unfavorable her move was. At least the state may be able to get the revenue from the stadium naming rights. Hochul needs to pivot and make clear that Democrats are on the side of middle-class families working to climb out of the hole created by COVID-19. So far, that message hasn’t gotten through the fog of inflation and high gas prices.
3. Indeed, recent Hochul ads on TV seem terribly generic and canned. She needs to pivot to something with a more compelling, engaging message, rather than a laundry list of policies.

1. In terms of voter targeting, Democrats need to fight to win back white, suburban women who abandoned the party in Virginia and New Jersey last fall. The likelihood that the U.S. Supreme Court overturns Roe Vs. Wade is a part of the message, but it needs to be matched with a message of safety and security and economic growth and revitalization. And then Hochul needs to drive a big turnout with Black voters, and fight to hold onto as many Latino voters as possible.

It’s not going to be easy. While Hochul has the benefit of time on her side, she better act quickly and decisively as she is putting New York Democrats on “shaky ground.”

Bradley Honan and Elisabeh Zeche are partners at the polling and data analytics firm, Honan Strategy Group. 

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Political insiders are largely unimpressed with both Gov. Kathy Hochul and New York City Mayor Eric Adams, giving the state’s two most powerful leaders dismal approval ratings. Just 22% of insiders surveyed say Hochul is doing an “excellent” or “good” job, and only 19% of them say the same for Adams. 

That’s according to the latest City & State/Honan Strategy Group poll of City & State subscribers. Linked through the First Read and First Read Tonight newsletter, 588 online surveys were completed between May 2 and May 5. 

City & State + Honan Strategy Group Insiders Survey by City & State NY on Scribd

These respondents are likely to work in politics and government, or at least follow the news closely. And they have a notably less positive view of Hochul and Adams than voters as a whole. An April Siena College poll of New York state registered voters found 36% thought Hochul was doing an “excellent” or “good” job, while 30% rated it “fair” and 27% “poor.” Political insiders surveyed in May were somewhat more critical, with 35% saying Hochul was doing a “fair” job and the plurality – 40% – rating it as “poor.” 

It’s a similar case for Adams. Just 2% of insiders rated the job he’s doing as “excellent,” 17% as “good,” 29% as “fair” and nearly half, 49%, as “poor.” New York City residents polled by Marist in March were more positive. Some 9% rated the job Adams is doing as “excellent,” 29% as “good,” 37% as “fair” and just 14% as “poor.” 

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WASHINGTON (TND) — Democratic lawmakers and the White House are feeling pressure to get a deal done on climate legislation as the November midterms inch closer.

Manchin talks with GOP on energy bill as advocates push Democrats to do it alone (Video: The National Desk) A busy legislative schedule, united Republican opposition, high energy and gas prices, and previous objections to sweeping proposals from Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., are hurdles that will need to be cleared to reach a deal.

Manchin has been in talks with lawmakers on both sides of the aisle to reach a deal on an energy and climate package. He and Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, are leading the effort to find a bipartisan compromise.

“We’re looking at a bipartisan — it’s a major policy in our country which way we go. I don’t want to get rid of the energy that we have today until we’ve proven the energy of tomorrow is able to do the job,” Manchin told reporters Tuesday.

With the gap between Democratic and Republican lawmakers on how to handle energy production, the odds of finding a plan that would clear a Senate filibuster are slim.

Climate advocacy groups are publicly doubting Republicans have any serious interest in finding an agreement.

“Over the last year of infrastructure and spending negotiations Republicans have made it clear that they will not vote for a bill that contains the transformational clean energy investments we need to fight the climate crisis, tackle inflation, and deliver real energy security,” said Holly Burke, a spokesperson for Evergreen Action, a climate group started by former aides of Washington Gov. Jay Inslee. “Bad faith bipartisan negotiations are a stall tactic, since Republicans have already made it clear that they will never agree to climate or tax changes. President Biden and Majority Leader Schumer must move past this bad faith distraction to craft a deal that can pass the Senate with 50 Democratic votes.”

The Sierra Club called on Biden and Democratic leadership to ditch Republican negotiations and pass something through reconciliation.

“Our elected leaders have had enough time to hem and haw on a bold package of climate investments,” Jonathon Berman, a spokesperson for Sierra Club wrote in a statement. “Now, we ask that they show true leadership and swiftly create and pass a budget reconciliation bill that invests in climate action at the scale necessary while ensuring economic equity and environmental justice for all. The time is now. Let’s get it done.”

Manchin, who said he could not support Biden’s signature Build Back Better bill in December due to concerns over its costs and inflation, has tried to pick up bipartisan support for bills instead of sticking to the reconciliation process that would allow Democrats to pass party priorities with zero Republican votes.

Bradley Honan, a Democratic pollster and strategist, said Manchin is playing politics with the bipartisan negotiations.

“Pure and simple, Manchin is playing politics – there is little to no chance that the GOP will support a climate plan that Biden will sign, but for local political reasons, Manchin needs to show he is working hard for a compromise,” he said. “Manchin will get some of what he wants and needs and so, too, will progressives.”

Manchin has suggested he is open to looking at passing a scaled-down version of a social and environment package that would use half its resources to reduce federal deficits through reconciliation.

“It’s critical that Congress pass a reconciliation bill with clean energy investments needed to fight inflation, reduce the deficit, avert climate disaster, and create millions of jobs in a clean energy economy,” Burke said. “Senator Manchin has reiterated his willingness to strike a deal on a reconciliation bill with historic investments in climate and clean energy. Now, it’s up to President Biden and Majority Leader Schumer to come to the table, engage directly with Senator Manchin, and work out a deal. There is no time to wait, and there is a clear path forward to get this done.”

After Monday’s meeting, Manchin told reporters Congress should focus on increasing domestic production of energy in the short-term and provide incentives for cleaner energy further into the future, particularly with tax credits.

“Monday’s meeting was an effort to gauge bipartisan interest in a path forward that addresses our nation’s climate and energy security needs head on,” Sam Runyon, Manchin’s communications director, said in a statement when asked for comment on what Manchin would support and what common ground may be available with Republicans.

Democrats and the White House are feeling pressure to notch some legislative achievements ahead of November. Voters increasingly disapprove of Biden’s job performance and give Democrats low marks on handling inflation and gas prices, both of which remain near record-highs.

“The recent national polling shows Democrats in real trouble,” Honan said. “It’s now or never for Biden to seize the moment and address high gas prices, raging inflation, worsening crime and safety, and above all else, get America back on track post pandemic.”

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine further complicated the party’s hopes for passing climate legislation as the U.S. and its allies enacted sanctions on Russian oil and altered the global supply. Republicans and some Democrats, including Manchin, have called for more domestic production and to reevaluate the leasing process for companies to search and drill for oil.

“You’re going to have to have a leasing program that works, OK, and making sure that leases are fair, and people are not sitting on leases,” Manchin told Bloomberg. “We need to look at all that. We haven’t done that.”

Burke said ramping up fossil fuel production would not be helpful to bring down prices quickly.

“Because new fossil fuel projects take years to come online, ramping up fossil production now would do nothing to bring down prices in the short term and would lock in dangerous carbon pollution for decades to come,” she said. “It’s imperative that Democrats prioritize policies that will actually drive down carbon pollution, in line with President Biden’s commitments.”

Some Democrats have said the war in Ukraine should be a signal America needs to stop relying so heavily on fossil fuels.

“But literally or rhetorically punishing coal, oil, and gas companies will alienate their workforces and will spell doom for Democrats in key areas we need to win come November,” Honan said.

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Sunday marks the 140th anniversary of the birth of former New York Gov. and U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt.

The legacy Roosevelt left as a policy innovator is well known. FDR is widely credited with restoring hope and a sound financial footing for Americans in the aftermath of the Great Depression, and waging a successful world war that led to the defeat of Japan, Italy and Nazi Germany.

Today, FDR remains the gold standard for swift government action in the face of grave crisis.

Indeed, 77 years after his death, FDR remains a revered figure that U.S. presidents still want to compare themselves to. Time magazine wrote that President Joe Biden wanted to position himself as “the modern FDR.”

But while there is much to admire about Roosevelt and his legacy, there is a very much overlooked chapter of his innovation legacy that FDR leaves behind for elected officials and political candidates today – namely the invention of modern political polling techniques used to help develop, refine, and execute political campaigns, using not gut instinct or intuition, but rather leveraging data and empirical validation.

Google “FDR” and “polling” and you come up with many references to the disastrous 1936 Literacy Digest poll that gave the polling industry a major black eye. The poll, conducted among literary magazine subscribers, automobile owners, and homes with telephones — three groups hardly representative of the U.S. electorate at the height of the Great Depression — showed FDR getting trounced in his re-election campaign, when in fact he would go on and score a monumental landslide victory.

But far less well-known is Roosevelt’s successful integration of Emil Hurja’s public opinion polling efforts in his campaigns, helping him prevail in the 1932 election against Herbert Hoover, and becoming among the small minority of sitting presidents whose political party gained seats in an off-year election — which is highly unusual. Almost always, the party in the White House loses congressional seats in midterm elections, as is widely expected to happen this coming November.

While John F. Kennedy’s pollster, Lou Harris, and Lyndon Johnson’s pollster, Oliver Quayle (who my father William H. Honan wrote about for the New York Times Magazine in 1966), get the lion’s credit for inventing modern political polling techniques, it was actually Roosevelt and Hurja who laid the foundation decades before either Harris or Quayle.

A biography of Hurja by Melvin Holli offers insight into a relatively unknown chapter of American history. Hurja, working under the chairman of the Democratic National Committee, James Farley, used polling in 1932 to identify what we now call “swing states” and “persuadable voters” — the earliest form of voter targeting. It allowed the Roosevelt campaign to concentrate scarce resources where it matted most.

Polling was deployed again by Farley and Hurja in 1936 when Roosevelt was in the White House. This was the first time a U.S. president had ever commissioned a public opinion poll.

The 1936 polling was designed to gauge the reaction to a potential third party run to Roosevelt’s political left by populist Louisiana Gov. Huey “the Kingfish” Long and radio demagogue Father Charles Coughlin, the Rush Limbaugh of his time. Hurja’s polling data showed Long and Coughlin to be a substantial enough threat to Roosevelt’s left flank that perhaps they could siphon off enough votes and cost FDR the election, handing the race to the Republicans. As a result of the polling data, FDR tacked left and enacted tax hikes on the wealthy and corporations to silence Long and Coughlin’s criticisms.

Hurja’s pioneering work in using scientific sampling techniques to project turnout and vote share won him the nickname the “Wizard of Washington” for his uncanny ability to forecast voting outcomes and put him on the cover of Time. Nevertheless, today this notoriety is all but long forgotten.

Polling today — both good and bad — has become ubiquitous in helping us process and understand what is on the minds of the increasingly diverse American public and the voting electorate.

So while we try and imagine FDR heartily blowing out 140 candles on his birthday cake today, it’s worth giving him due credit for “birthing” the opinion research process vital to helping us understand the contours of contemporary public opinion.

Bradley Honan and Elisabeth Zeche are founders and executives of the Honan Strategy group, a New York based Democratic polling and data analytics firm.

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